2020 Census Profile Summary

In this article, we begin a look into how we compare to the population of our nation, the state, the county, and the city as a subregion of the county. Understanding who we are – how we are the same, how we are different – can help us to see how to address problems with solutions.  It also can help us appreciate what we have and the beauty around us.

The sources of our information will be multitude, often coming from government data of the nation, state, county or city, but sometimes from private sources like geographic databases as well.  There is a caution to be had with any data, however:  intentionally or not, the data may not capture an accurate picture.

Why?  There are several reasons:

1. Inaccuracies in counting.
2. Old data has to be used to infer or extrapolate current conditions, because analysis must always take place after observation.
3. Not all data may have been extracted at the same time.
4. Observable facts may be misunderstood by the analyst.  (The Pima County story is a case in point – legend has it that when a native was asked what this area was called, he replied “Pima”, meaning “I don’t know”.)
5. Facts may be interpreted against biases, distorting the conclusions extracted from them.
6. Data available may not be resolvable to the geography or population we want to look at.

Therefore, as we go through this study of who we are, keep in mind that we are multidimensional and constantly changing entities.   It is impossible to correctly pinpoint who we are even at an instant, much less over time in a multitude of directions, patterns and flows.

Census Data Geographical Constraints

There is also the problem that the data is not available discretely enough to be precise.  That is true of our little neighborhood.  The United States Census Bureau uses Tracts and Blocks to subdivide each county.  But it is often difficult to understand why they drew boundaries as they did.  

Census Tracts can be of whatever size geographically that provides an adequate population to avoid “sensitive cells” at the tract level.  A sensitive cell is where the data is so sparse that it makes it easy to identify specific individuals within that geography. 

Census Blocks are subdivisions of cells, and are generally defined as islands of land bordered by roads or governmental boundaries.  Therefore, some blocks are quite small and others are fairly large, in either geography or population.  This is true of Hidden Valley as well.  We are mostly contained in Census Tract 40.79.  About 10 residences we count in our community, though, are in Census Tract 40.80, adjacent to the south.  For much of our reporting here, those ten properties are ignored.

However, CT 40.79 has two “Block Groups” within it – 1 and 2. All but 2 of our residences are in Block Group 1.  Block Group 1, though, also contains all the properties north of Ocotillo Road.  So to measure our most local population, we must eliminate the blocks in Block Group 1 that are not pertinent as well.  That is a more tedious chore, so getting data that precise will not be nearly as easy.

But we are not done yet.  The Hidden Valley Homeowners Association represents folks living in seven single-family subdivisions and some adjacent unsubdivided properties, as well as some folks in an eighth subdivision where they access onto Rockcliff Road.  But two of the Census Blocks involved, 1005 and 1017, incorporate townhome and apartment subdivisions  as well as some of our single-family residences.  For Block 1017, this is only about 4 residences that we lose by excluding it.  Block 1005, though, contains many single family residences of our neighborhood, but also many townhomes and apartments as well as commercial businesses.  Most of Sabino Foothills Estates, as well as a handful of homes in Hidden Valley Estates and Castle Rock Estates are in this Block.  This is a sad hole in our data: either we lose information on a significant part of our neighborhood, or we include data that would significantly skew our results.  Until the Census Bureau allows us to draw our own lines, that will have to do.  We will have to look at these blocks and try to guess how they fit into what we can tell from the rest.

Here is our map of Hidden Valley Homeowners Association:

And below is Census Tract 40.79:

As you can see, the bottom half of Block 1 (the north end of the blue section) closely approximates our neighborhood, except it includes the townhomes and apartments.

Below is a map of Housing Occupancy based on just the blocks of our neighborhood.  Notice how the more dense areas affect the numbers in blocks 1005 and 1017.

The Initial Comparison: Hidden Valley vs. the Nation, State, County & Metro

For our quick purposes here, we will use the entire Census Tract 40.79 for comparison, as it is the lowest level at which the Census Bureau site (https://data.census.gov) provides good summary data.

Summary for the United States:

Summary for Arizona: 

Summary for Pima County:

Summary for Tucson Metro:

Summary for Census Tract 40.79:

Observations from these Summaries:

You are encouraged to reach your own conclusions.  But here are some observations I noted…

1. We are not a significant part of the population, even of the Metro area.  So if we get our roads paved, good fire and emergency services, and quick response from government, it is a function of privilege and influence – both of which might be attributed to the confidence of having wealth and education – and they might be due to having an active Homeowner’s Association, as well.
2. Almost half the people in our census tract are not employed.  If one takes out the townhomes and apartments, that statistic probably is actually much higher for our neighborhood itself.
3. While Tucson and Pima County have 15% lower income on average than the State and and Nation, our Census Tract has a 50% HIGHER income.  Again, accounting for the townhomes and apartments, this could easily be much higher for the HOA itself.
4. While more than a third of the Nation, State, County and City is Hispanic/Latino, this group is only about 20% of our neighborhood.
5. The Nation, State, County and City all have about 35% of their population having Bachelor’s degrees or better.  But in our Census Tract, it is 58%.
6. Of the Nation, 8.6% of the population does not have health insurance.  For Arizona, this rises to 10%, but Pima County and Tucson both return to the national average.  For our Census Tract, it is only 5.8%.

Conclusions:

None of these observations is startling yet.  That is a good thing – it means our sense of reality and where we fit in corresponds with facts observed about us.  It is when one’s sense of reality differs from the facts that one should be concerned.

We are blessed, not just with income, education and healthcare, but with an incredibly beautiful place to live.  Many of us are unemployed, and yet our income is high, so many of us are likely, just from this quick summary, comfortably retired.

Future articles on our census data will look at age distribution and other statistics about our neighborhood, both current and in past census counts.  Stay tuned.